MLB: 2010 Fantasy Kit: Third Basemen
Prepare for the 2010 fantasy baseball season with Athlon Sports’ Fantasy Kit, which continues today with the third basemen.
Listen to the Daily Diamond Update crew dissect this year’s crop of third basemen.
Click here to download the Third Base fantasy page in .pdf format.
Key:
A: Franchise Player: You need one to compete, two to win, three to dominate.
B: Career Year: Veteran with a strong possibility of delivering his best season.
C: Sleeper: Could be a great acquisition at a price or draft slot below his true value.
D: Roadblocked: Rank lowered because there is no current opportunity to play regularly.
E: Decliner: Expect moderately to significantly worse stats than in 2009.
F: Injury Risk: Has had a recent injury that could affect performance.
G: Investor’s Special: Top prospect whose immediate impact may be minimal.
Batting stats are expressed AVG-HR-RBI-SB
2010 Third Base Projections:
Tier 1
1. RYAN ZIMMERMAN, Nationals (A) -- Zim’s .292 AVG, 33 HRs, 106 RBIs and 110 runs formed a quartet of numbers equaled by only nine other third basemen in National League history. And he did it for a terrible club. He’s grounded, healthy, clutch and 25 years old — a quartet of traits that puts him squarely on a Chipper Jones-type career path.
2. DAVID WRIGHT, Mets (A) -- The largest power outage in world history blacked out 100 million people across Indonesian islands in 2005. The second-largest occurred in New York last summer, when Wright short-circuited to 10 home runs after belting 116 the previous four years. His fifth straight .300 AVG and his 27 steals were conventional for him, but another season of Wright Unplugged would shuffle him well down the rolls.
3. EVAN LONGORIA, Rays (A) -- Spackling a few holes in his swing would put Longo in Zimmerman’s hitting zip code, and attaining his potential of 15-to-20 SBs would make him the showpiece third base property. Imagine what his 113-RBI total might become if he could trim his strikeouts (140) and GIDPs (27) to passable levels.
4. ALEX RODRIGUEZ, Yankees (A) -- No shame in a .933 OPS, but that was .055 lower than the composite of A-Rod’s previous decade. No shame in the 35-HR/110-RBI level he’ll likely sustain the next few years, but his roto-ruling 50/140 seasons are gone.
Tier 2
5. ARAMIS RAMIREZ, Cubs -- A shoulder injury halved Ramirez’s season, but even playing with pain, his production was right on the money. In fact, his season OPS data has nestled within a range of .028 each of the last five years. That manner of consistency and 162-game norms of .300-36-120 since he joined the Cubs in 2003 are rare.
6. MARK REYNOLDS, Diamondbacks -- Never mind that he’s the only man ever to strike out 200 times in a season, Reynolds also stood alone as the sole player with 40 homers, 100 RBIs and 20 steals in 2009. The impact of the whiffs is the 20 or so hits and ribbies apiece that would blast him out of the pack.
Tier 3
7. CHONE FIGGINS, Mariners -- From Reynolds all the way to Figgins? The current third base crop is shallower than at any time in memory — and even at this slot in the rankings, you’re buying stolen bases. Figgins’ 42 steals, 114 runs and .298 AVG were par for him, but he ran only about 20 percent of the time he was on base. Another 100-walk performance could mean 60 thefts.
8. IAN STEWART, Rockies (B) -- There are at least 30 home run balls with Stewart’s name on them, but the measure of his season will be his ability to hoist that .228 AVG. We think he will, to at least .260. A bonus: He played 21 games at second base, which will qualify him there in most circuits.
9. MICHAEL YOUNG, Rangers -- The move from shortstop was a body blow to Young’s fantasy allure. His .322 AVG was the highest of players who will be regulars at third this year, but his 68 RBIs stood only 15th.
10. JORGE CANTU, Marlins -- It was a weird (and physically challenging year) for Cantu. He reached base almost exactly the same number of times as in 2008, but scored 25 fewer runs. His homers fell from 29 to 16, yet his RBIs ticked from 95 to 100.
11. ADRIAN BELTRE, Red Sox (C) -- Beltre has never regained the career momentum of his .334-48-121 showing in 2004, partially due to injury. The tepid free agent demand and one-year contract for which he settled was not a good sign, but at 31 he should be in his prime and, therefore, undervalued on draft day.
12. CHIPPER JONES, Braves -- Other than losing exactly 100 points off his batting average (.264) last year, Jones’ prorated numbers have been resilient, considering he turns 38 in April. Nagging injuries (he hasn’t played 150 games since 2003) have Chipper chirping about retirement even though he’s signed through ’12.
13. ALEX GORDON, Royals -- The signs at the crossroads are labeled “boom” and “bust.” This should be the year Gordon chooses his path. If you find yourself in Tier 3 still vacant at third base, your selection of him will carry the greatest risk/reward differential at the position.
14. PLACIDO POLANCO, Phillies -- Although Polanco is a career .303 hitter, he has to scrape and claw to reach 10 homers and 65 RBIs — not ideal at a fantasy power position. Being melded into a stronger order than the Tigers’ will help his fantasy worth, but not as much as the position switch from second base hurts.
15. KEVIN KOUZMANOFF, A’s -- “The Crushin’ Russian’s” career is not advancing any faster than that bicycle he rides to PETCO every home game. Do we think it ever will? Nyet, until he prunes his 4-to-1 SO/BB ratio and/or gets traded out of that park.
Tier 4
16. Casey McGehee, Brewers
17. Andy LaRoche, Pirates
18. Casey Blake, Dodgers
19. Garrett Atkins, Orioles (C)
20. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
21. Scott Rolen, Reds
22. Mark Teahen, White Sox
23. Mark DeRosa, Giants
24. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays (F)
25. Brandon Inge, Tigers
26. David Freese, Cardinals (C)
27. Pedro Feliz, Astros
28. Joe Crede, Free Agent (F)
29. Brandon Wood, Angels
Tier 5
30. Brendan Harris, Twins
31. Eric Chavez, A’S (F)
32. Mike Lowell, Red Sox (F)
33. Bobby Crosby, Pirates
34. Mat Gamel, Brewers (D, G)
35. Melvin Mora, Rockies
36. Pedro Alvarez, Pirates (G)
37. Josh Bell, Orioles (D, G)
38. Bill Hall, Red Sox
39. Matt Tuiasosopo, Mariners
Listen to the Daily Diamond Update crew dissect this year’s crop of third basemen.
Click here to download the Third Base fantasy page in .pdf format.
These rankings appear in the 2010 Athlon Sports Baseball magazine. Click here to order your copy now.
