MLB: 2010 Fantasy Kit: Shortstops
Prepare for the 2010 fantasy baseball season with Athlon Sports’ Fantasy Kit, which continues today with the shortstops.
Listen to the Daily Diamond Update crew dissect this year’s crop of shortstops.
Click here to download the Shortstops’ fantasy page in .pdf format.
Key:
A: Franchise Player: You need one to compete, two to win, three to dominate.
B: Career Year: Veteran with a strong possibility of delivering his best season.
C: Sleeper: Could be a great acquisition at a price or draft slot below his true value.
D: Roadblocked: Rank lowered because there is no current opportunity to play regularly.
E: Decliner: Expect moderately to significantly worse stats than in 2009.
F: Injury Risk: Has had a recent injury that could affect performance.
G: Investor’s Special: Top prospect whose immediate impact may be minimal.
Batting stats are expressed AVG-HR-RBI-SB
2010 Shortstop Projections:
Tier 1
1. HANLEY RAMIREZ, Marlins (A) -- Ramirez has entered Phase 2 of his career, one with a little more mash and a little less dash. As we noted last year, he would knock in 100 runs if Fredi Gonzalez dropped him in the order, and indeed, he had 105 out of the 3-hole. Conversely, he stole barely the half the bags (27) of two years previous. As a total package, the NL batting champ (.342) is the best fantasy shortstop since A-Rod “outgrew” the job.
2. TROY TULOWITZKI, Rockies (A) -- A bonanza for those drafters who misinterpreted his injury-impacted .263-8-46-1 of 2008 as something other than an aberration, Tulo blew up to .297-32-92-20. No other shortstop has ever merged those four numbers in a season. The RBI total was disproportionately low because he made 61 starts in lineup spots other than 3-4-5 -- something that won’t happen again.
3. JOSE REYES, Mets (A, F) -- When he has his legs under him, Reyes is a top-5 roto beast. His legs are his game, and 2009 was the second time they’ve failed him for an extended period. Just 26, he still could have numerous 20-HR/50-SB campaigns in his future. At this point, the projections are more Barry Larkin than Joe Morgan. Not that that’s a bad thing.
Tier 2
4. ALEXEI RAMIREZ, White Sox (B) -- Ramirez rolled back his stats slightly, but that was a product of a 15-for-78 start, after which he was a force. Look for a 20-20 (at least) 2010, but unless Ozzie Guillen moves him into the teeth of the order, the RBI total won’t keep pace.
5. DEREK JETER, Yankees (E) -- Playing half his career on the tattered diamonds of the 19th century, Bill Dahlen set a record by making 975 errors at shortstop. Fortunately, he could hit and run. Until Hanley Ramirez and Jeter matched his feat in 2009, “Bad Bill” (so known for his crabby temperament) was the only player at the position ever with a .325 AVG, 15 HRs and 25 SBs in a season. Dahlen never got close to that again. Derek might get close -- the key word being “might.”
6. JIMMY ROLLINS, Phillies -- Rollins has failed to deliver on the long-term promise of his 2007 MVP season, seeing his subsequent HR rate depress from one per 26 PAs to one per 42, and AVG from .296 to .262. In 2009, his 31 steals were his fewest in five years, and those aren’t liable to recover, either. On balance, Jim’s still dandy … just no longer deadly.
7. YUNEL ESCOBAR, Braves -- Escobar lacks the base-stealing aptitude and all-around bust-butt attitude of the higher-ranked shortstops, although his .299-14-76 bat keeps him in the second row. He should orbit around those numbers for quite awhile.
8. ELVIS ANDRUS, Rangers -- A Reyes-like career is not off the table for Andrus, who didn’t turn 21 until late last season. His 33 steals despite reaching base only 174 times herald huge potential in that area. Draft him for those, and hang in there as his bat gradually catches up.
Tier 3
9. STEPHEN DREW, Diamondbacks -- The Drews have had more busts than any family since the Mansons. Stephen’s helter-skelter career is comprised of .874, .683, .836 and .748 OPSs. If you’re into potential, then draft him; if you’re into safety, step away from the table.
10. RAFAEL FURCAL, Dodgers -- The messages are muddled on Furcal. He’s hit .270 in his last two full seasons ... but .331 in his last 31 games. His back and ankle issues have a chronic component ... but he says he’s fine. He averaged 31 SBs from 2000-07 ... but had only 12 last year. We still like him ... but it’s not a 2006 kind of like.
11. ASDRUBAL CABRERA, Indians -- Cabrera is a super-streaky 24-year-old who is sending signals of minor stardom. Last year he hit .308, scored 81 runs in a feeble lineup and more than quadrupled his thefts to 17. Something to build on.
12. JASON BARTLETT, Rays (E) -- A bizarre bound from .286-1-37-20 to .320-14-66-30 made Bartlett a top-25 fantasy prize last year. He’s obviously discovered some magic elixir, but to expect a repeat is, well, fantasy. The element most likely to hold up is the steals.
13. ALCIDES ESCOBAR, Brewers (C) -- Dollar for dollar, here’s a player to target. He’s slightly behind Andrus on the curve of emergent star shortstops, but holds greater offensive potential. Escobar’s Venezuelan League-leading .393 AVG over the winter may mean it will happen sooner rather than later.
14. ERICK AYBAR, Angels -- If Bartlett was the breakout story among shortstops, Aybar was the subplot: .277-3-39-7 to .312-5-58-14. Don’t trust him to move off the first three totals, but he’s capable of another 10 steals.
15. RYAN THERIOT, Cubs -- Theriot is an extreme three-category player who helps in steals, runs and batting average. He’s hit 14 homers in 2,108 career plate appearances, and five of those came in a two-week period last May.
Tier 4
16. J.J. Hardy, Twins
17. Marco Scutaro, Red Sox (E)
18. Miguel Tejada, Orioles (E)
19. Everth Cabrera, Padres (C)
20. Orlando Cabrera, Reds (E)
21. Mike Aviles, Royals (F)
22. Cristian Guzman, Nationals (E)
23. Brendan Ryan, Cardinals
24. Jack Wilson, Mariners
25. Cliff Pennington, Athletics
Tier 5
26. Ian Desmond, Nationals (D, G)
27. Ronny Cedeno, Pirates
28. Alex Gonzalez, Blue Jays (F)
29. Edgar Renteria, Giants
30. Cesar Izturis, Orioles
31. Tommy Manzella, Astros
32. Paul Janish, Reds
33. Julio Lugo, Cardinals
34. Yuniesky Betancourt, Royals
35. Adam Everett, Tigers
36. Ramon Santiago, Tigers
37. Jed Lowrie, Red Sox (D)
38. Reid Brignac, Rays (D, G)
39. Starlin Castro, Cubs (G)
Listen to the Daily Diamond Update crew dissect this year’s crop of shortstops.
Click here to download the Shortstops’ fantasy page in .pdf format.
These rankings appear in the 2010 Athlon Sports Baseball magazine. Click here to order your copy now.
